Middle East Live

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Israel/Palestine 🇮🇱🇵🇸 : 21/08 - Israel launches the “first steps” of an operation to seize Gaza City and recalls tens of thousands of reservists, while considering a 60-day truce offer tied to a hostage/prisoner exchange accepted by Hamas (mediation by Egypt/Qatar).

West Bank 🇮🇱🇵🇸 : 20/08 — Final approval granted for the “E1” settlement project near Maale Adumim, condemned by the UN, the UK, and other capitals as it would cut a future Palestinian state in two.

Iran–Belarus 🇮🇷🇧🇾 : 20/08 — Meeting in Minsk: Tehran and Minsk announce a comprehensive strengthening of their ties, including military-technical cooperation, with the goal of a strategic partnership treaty.

Iran–United States 🇮🇷🇺🇸 : 20/08 — Tehran declares that “the time has not come” for “effective” nuclear talks with Washington, signaling a status quo on the nuclear file.

Lebanon/Vatican 🇱🇧🇻🇦 : 20/08 — The Maronite Patriarch announces a visit by Pope Leon XIV to Lebanon “by December,” which would be his first trip outside Italy.

Syria 🇸🇾 : 20/08 — A senior ISIS figure is killed during a U.S. forces operation, according to a Western official, illustrating the persistence of counterterrorism efforts in northern Syria.

What the newspapers say, our analysis

The day was dominated by the dual dynamic of Gaza City: on the ground, Israel is initiating a new offensive phase, while diplomatically a 60-day truce (accepted by Hamas) is on the mediators’ table (Egypt, Qatar), with Israel still weighing its options. At the same time, the decision on “E1” hardens the political framework in the West Bank and increases international pressure. Outside the Israeli-Palestinian front, Iran is consolidating partnerships (Belarus) while cooling expectations on the nuclear issue.

Analytical focus: seizure of Gaza City vs. 60-day truce

Context. After nearly two years of war, Israel is preparing to seize Gaza City (the Hamas political, symbolic, and logistical hub) while assessing a temporary truce with hostage/prisoner exchanges. The UN warns of a massive risk to civilians.

Actors and interests. Israel seeks a decisive victory and the release of hostages, with internal red lines (pressure from coalition hawks). Hamas, militarily weakened, aims for strategic breathing space and political gains through a negotiated truce. Egypt and Qatar play mediators, while Washington (and partners) attempt to secure a durable cessation framework. The political climate tightens with the approval of “E1.”

Risks/consequences. An urban operation in Gaza City could trigger massive new displacements and civilian losses, complicate negotiations, and broaden regional escalation (southern Lebanon, Yemen). Conversely, a truce without a credible political trajectory risks freezing the conflict without solving it, while the advancement of “E1” further undermines the two-state hypothesis and hardens external positions toward Israel.

To watch. (1) The actual timetable of reservist mobilization and any signal of intra-urban assault. (2) The specifics of the truce parameters (sequencing of hostages/prisoners, guarantees, monitoring) and the position of the Israeli cabinet. (3) U.S./European reactions to “E1” and their impact on Israeli calculations. (4) Any cross-fire or significant strike in Lebanon/Syria/Yemen indicating spillover. (5) Iranian moves on the nuclear issue and military partnerships (Minsk) that could influence regional red lines.

We remain particularly attentive to short-term consequences. The main risk is a breakdown of the mediation channel if the ground assault on Gaza City intensifies before any convergence on truce terms, making an agreement less likely and increasing the chance of regional escalation.